Away from the bright lights of the Premier League chances exist to achieve the pleasure of outsmarting bookmaker firms. While the odds for tonight’s Championship encounter between Charlton Athletic and Derby County are skimpy enough, football punters will still be keen to invest in the fixture.
Having shown an improvement at the end of autumn and start of winter, things were looking up for Derby, but their recent form is worrying. Since thumping Sheffield Wednesday midway through November the Rams have only taken one point from a possible 15, ensuring manager Paul Jewell is burdened again. Can Derby deliver at the Valley?
Considering Charlton’s current travails the midlanders certainly hope so because the Londoners’ campaign has been a scary tale of woe. Alan Pardew was discarded as Charlton’s boss and the statistics make for grim reading too. Charlton’s last League victory occurred on October 10 when beating Ipswich Town at the Valley. Since that success Charlton have pocketed four points from a possible 36. And despite such inadequacy Charlton fully believe that Derby are ripe for plucking.
There is a danger that Charlton may be cast adrift with Doncaster and Nottingham Forest so they are attaching huge importance to the Derby County tie. Those optimists who respect the logic that every football run will end sometime may be tempted to back the Addicks at 7/5, but they would be doing so more in hope than expectation.
Derby are one of those teams capable of producing an unexpected result - evidence being their march to the Carling Cup semi-finals where two dates with Manchester United are scheduled - but consistency remains a serious issue. Decent sides like Sheffield United, QPR, Norwich City, and Plymouth Argyle have suffered against a fired up Derby and that is what they should be this evening due to the significance of the 90 minutes. At 19/10 an away win is a real possibility, but it is in the goals markets that punters will be seeking value.
Six of Derby’s last seven Championship encounters have featured over 2.5 goals, while the same thing has happened in six of Charlton’s last eight League games. That is why the 10/11 being offered on over 2.5 goals is worth a reasonable bet.
Choosing the first goalscorer is tricky, but whoever manages the feat will make a tidy profit as 11/2 is the shortest price. Charlton midfielder Hameur Bouazza has contributed three goals in 21 appearances since joining on loan from Fulham, and a small flutter at 12/1 wouldn’t be misguided.
If Derby are to claim the win that is so badly required they will need Nathan Ellington to make a valuable contribution. Now an experienced frontrunner, Ellington needs to improve his goals ratio for the Rams, and this appears to be the perfect opportunity. Having only clipped seven in 26 games Ellington has been the hero of Derby’s League Cup run, hitting a half dozen in that competition. Often used as a substitute Ellington is expected to return to the starting XI, and has the ability and power to trouble Charlton. While it would be advisable to wait until the teams are released shortly before kick off, Ellington at 13/2 represents a fair price.
Bets Advised:
Over 2.5 goals in Charlton Athletic and Derby County 10/11
Nathan Ellington to get first goal 13/2
